The race for the Osun State governorship seat is increasingly shaping up as a battle beyond traditional political strongholds, with alliances, influential political figures and performance across closely contested local government areas likely to determine the winner on Saturday.
Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji and ADC candidate Najeem Salaam are focusing on areas where their opponents have established political structures, as each campaign seeks to convert local influence into votes.
Rather than relying solely on their home bases, the three leading contenders are seeking support in areas where political loyalties remain divided. Adeleke is banking on his record in office, particularly projects executed across the state, while Oyebamiji is relying on APC structures and influential party figures to expand his reach.
Adeleke is expected to have an advantage in Ede North and Ede South, his home base, as well as Egbedore. His campaign is also targeting Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South, although Oyebamiji could make gains in the Ife axis through his running mate, Benjamin Adereti, who is from Ile-Ife.
The APC candidate has strong expectations in the Ayedaade, Irewole and Isokan axis, where he hails from. The influence of former governorship aspirant Dotun Babayemi could further strengthen the APC’s position in the area.
Other areas are producing a more complicated political picture. Osogbo and Olorunda, for instance, have attracted attention because all three major candidates have political interests there. Adeleke has the backing of the Ataoja of Osogbo, while APC figures are also working to strengthen the party’s position. Salaam, meanwhile, could benefit from the influence of former governor Rauf Aregbesola.
The Iwo axis is another area to watch. Adeleke’s camp is hoping the influence of former Secretary to the State Government Moshood Adeoti will help boost its performance, while political figures within the APC could also affect the distribution of votes.
Oyebamiji is also expected to be competitive in areas such as Boripe, Boluwaduro, Irepodun, Ife North and Obokun. In the Ilesa axis, APC has a strong presence in Ilesa West, while Aregbesola’s influence could make Ilesa East less predictable.
For Salaam, the contest could depend heavily on whether his statewide appeal, combined with the political network inherited from Aregbesola, can translate into votes beyond his home base of Ejigbo.
With the three leading candidates drawing support from different political structures, the election may ultimately be decided not by one dominant stronghold but by how effectively each campaign converts support in the competitive local government areas.
The final outcome will therefore depend heavily on voter turnout, local alliances and the ability of each candidate to secure votes in areas where no contender has a clear advantage.
