by Olaitan Babatunde
The Osun State governorship election is officially about choosing a governor. In reality, it is about something much bigger. For the Independent National Electoral Commission, this election has become the most important dress rehearsal before Nigeria’s 2027 general election. Every ballot paper, every BVAS device, every polling official, every result sheet, and every logistical decision will be scrutinized, not only by Osun residents but by political parties, election observers, civil society organizations, and millions of Nigerians who have gradually lost confidence in the country’s electoral process. If democracy is built on trust, then Osun may determine whether that trust is beginning to return or slipping away even further.
The pressure on INEC did not begin with Osun. It began in February 2023 when Nigerians went to the polls with unprecedented expectations. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal was presented as a turning point in electoral transparency. Citizens believed technology would reduce manipulation, eliminate ghost voters, and allow polling unit results to be viewed almost immediately. While BVAS significantly improved voter accreditation by reducing incidents of multiple voting and identity fraud, the controversy surrounding the delayed upload of presidential election results to the IReV portal damaged public confidence. Although INEC maintained that the issue did not affect the legal collation of presidential results, many Nigerians concluded that technological innovation means little if public expectations are not met. Since then, every election conducted by the commission has carried the burden of restoring credibility.
Osun now presents INEC with an opportunity to prove that lessons have been learnt. The commission has repeatedly assured stakeholders that sensitive materials will arrive on time, polling officials have undergone additional training, and technological systems have been tested ahead of the election. Yet logistics have historically been one of the weakest links in Nigeria’s electoral chain. Across several elections, delayed arrival of officials and materials has forced frustrated voters to wait for hours, sometimes discouraging participation altogether. In a state where voter turnout has steadily declined over the years, every delayed polling unit risks becoming another reason for citizens to stay home during future elections.
Technology alone will not determine whether this election succeeds. The human factor remains Nigeria’s greatest electoral challenge. BVAS cannot prevent vote buying. Electronic accreditation cannot stop political intimidation outside polling units. Digital systems cannot replace the integrity of polling officials, security personnel, party agents, and collation officers. Professor Attahiru Jega, a former INEC Chairman, recently argued that while technology has improved elections, the greatest vulnerabilities still lie in human conduct and legal loopholes rather than electronic systems. His warning is particularly relevant in Osun. The credibility of the election will depend as much on institutional neutrality as it does on technological efficiency.
Security agencies also face their own examination. Their responsibility extends beyond preventing violence. They must demonstrate impartiality. Election security in Nigeria has often been criticised for either excessive force or selective enforcement. In highly competitive elections, perception matters almost as much as reality. A security officer seen escorting one political actor more favourably than another can damage public confidence even before votes are counted. This explains why election observers increasingly evaluate professionalism, restraint, and neutrality alongside the absence of violence. Peace is not simply the absence of conflict. It is the visible presence of fairness.
Perhaps the most revealing statistic ahead of the Osun election is not the number of registered voters but the number of those likely to vote. Across Nigeria, voter registration has continued to increase while actual participation has declined. The country now has one of the largest voter registers in Africa, yet millions of citizens who collect Permanent Voter Cards never appear at polling units. Some have lost faith in the electoral process. Others believe their votes make little difference. This silent withdrawal poses a greater threat to democracy than many political controversies because it gradually weakens the legitimacy of elected governments without attracting national outrage. Empty polling units rarely dominate headlines, yet they quietly reshape democracy.
For political parties, Osun is another governorship election. For INEC, it is something closer to a national audit. Every success will strengthen confidence ahead of 2027. Every failure will become evidence for critics who argue that electoral reforms have not gone far enough. The commission therefore carries a burden heavier than ballot boxes. It carries the responsibility of convincing Nigerians that elections can still be trusted.
When the results are eventually declared, attention will naturally turn to the winning candidate. But history may remember this election for something else entirely. It may remember whether INEC succeeded in rebuilding confidence where doubt had taken root. Before Nigerians choose a President in 2027, they will first be watching Osun. For the electoral commission, the countdown to the next general election has already begun.
