Babachir Lawal’s comments are striking not only because of his prediction of a Tinubu victory but also because they come from a politician who was recently associated with opposition coalition efforts.
His decision to publicly step away from active politics suggests a degree of disillusionment with the current political environment and the strategies being pursued by opposition actors ahead of 2027.
What stands out most is the contradiction embedded in his remarks. On one hand, he predicts a landslide victory for President Tinubu; on the other, he frames that prediction around allegations of electoral manipulation.
This reflects a recurring feature of Nigerian politics, where debates about electoral competitiveness are often intertwined with concerns about the credibility of the electoral process itself.
His comments may also be interpreted as a reflection of the opposition’s challenges rather than simply an endorsement of Tinubu’s political strength. Despite growing coalition talks, defections, and realignments, opposition parties are still grappling with internal divisions, competing ambitions, and organizational weaknesses.
In contrast, the ruling APC continues to benefit from the advantages that come with incumbency, extensive political networks, and access to established party structures across the country.
Lawal’s refusal to support either Peter Obi or any other opposition project further underscores the fragmentation that remains within anti-APC circles. While several opposition figures have attempted to build a united front, not all influential actors appear convinced that the emerging alliances can effectively challenge the ruling party.
At a broader level, his remarks highlight the battle over narratives that is already taking shape ahead of 2027. For the ruling party, the focus is likely to remain on incumbency, governance records, and political organization.
For the opposition, the challenge will be demonstrating that it possesses both the unity and institutional strength required to convert public dissatisfaction into electoral success.
Whether Lawal’s prediction proves accurate is ultimately a matter for voters and the electoral process. However, his comments reinforce a growing perception that the opposition’s biggest challenge may not simply be defeating Tinubu, but first convincing Nigerians that it can present a credible, cohesive, and competitive alternative.
