Three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the debate around his economic performance reflects the broader tension currently defining Nigeria’s economy: improving macroeconomic indicators on one hand and worsening household realities on the other.
What stands out from the views of the economists is not necessarily disagreement about the reforms themselves but disagreement about how much credit should be given for their outcomes.
There appears to be a growing consensus that subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalization were difficult decisions that previous administrations repeatedly avoided. The question, however, is whether the social and economic costs have been adequately managed.
For many Nigerians, economic performance is not measured by GDP growth, foreign reserves, or investor confidence. It is measured by the cost of food, transportation, rent, electricity, and the ability to meet daily needs. On those indicators, there is little doubt that life has become significantly more expensive since 2023.
The sharp rise in fuel prices and the depreciation of the naira have filtered through almost every aspect of economic life, reducing purchasing power and putting pressure on households and businesses alike.
At the same time, it would be difficult to ignore signs of macroeconomic stabilization. Foreign reserves have improved, GDP growth has remained positive, and international financial institutions have generally welcomed the administration’s reform agenda. These developments suggest that the government has made progress in correcting structural distortions that had accumulated over many years.
The challenge is that macroeconomic recovery and public welfare do not always move at the same pace. Economic reforms can produce positive indicators while citizens continue to experience hardship. That appears to be the central story of Tinubu’s first three years in office.
What makes the conversation politically significant is that public perception is increasingly shaped by lived experience rather than economic data. Nigerians may acknowledge that reforms were necessary, but many are still waiting to see tangible improvements in their daily lives.
As a result, assessments of the administration vary widely depending on whether one focuses on economic fundamentals or household realities.
Ultimately, Tinubu’s economic legacy remains unfinished. Supporters see an administration laying the groundwork for long-term stability, while critics see an economy where the burden of adjustment has fallen heavily on ordinary citizens.
Both perspectives are visible in the current debate, which explains why expert ratings of the government’s performance range from poor to moderately positive despite looking at the same economy.
