As the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election draws closer, the All Progressives Congress (APC) faces a crucial moment, presenting both significant challenges and unparalleled opportunities. While internal discussions have surfaced regarding the optimal zoning of the party’s gubernatorial ticket, a meticulous analysis of current political dynamics, historical performance data, and the demonstrable shortcomings of the incumbent administration strongly indicates that the Osun East Senatorial District offers the most strategic and viable route to electoral success for the APC.
The principle of political zoning is a cornerstone of democratic governance, designed to foster equity and ensure representation for historically disadvantaged areas. In Osun State, this principle is currently at the forefront of political discourse, particularly concerning the governorship and the distribution of power across its senatorial districts and federal constituencies. A closer examination reveals a nuanced landscape where the ideals of fairness often intersect with political realities.
Historically, Osun West Senatorial District has produced two governors since the state’s creation. Significantly, both of these leaders hailed from the Ede Federal Constituency. This outcome presents a critical question regarding the equitable application of zoning within the district itself. If fairness is indeed the guiding principle, a logical progression would suggest that other underrepresented areas within Osun West should be considered for future gubernatorial candidacies. Constituencies such as Ikire or Iwo, which have never had the opportunity to produce a governor, would naturally emerge as prime candidates in a truly balanced zoning arrangement.
However, the political landscape is rarely straightforward. The current dominance of Governor Adeleke, also from Ede, significantly impacts these considerations. His strong influence in Ede and across Osun West could potentially overshadow attempts to shift power internally within the district. Furthermore, a pragmatic question arises for voters in other parts of the state: why would they readily endorse another candidate from Osun West for a potential eight-year tenure when they could align with Governor Adeleke, thereby facilitating a shift of power to a different zone or district in the future? This strategic calculation, where the prospect of ‘four years is better than eight’ for a particular zone, plays a crucial role in voter behaviour.
Expanding the scope beyond internal Osun West dynamics, the broader application of zoning to ensure equity for politically disadvantaged areas brings other constituencies into sharp focus. Given that Osun West has already produced two governors, a truly fair zoning approach would prioritize areas that have not yet had the opportunity to lead the state. Constituencies such as Ile-Ife, Ijebu-Jesa, and Osogbo, which have not produced a governor, stand out in this regard.
This perspective significantly strengthens the equity argument in favour of Osun East Senatorial District. Should Governor Adeleke secure another term, Osun West would have accumulated three stints in Government House, Oshogbo. In contrast, Osun East would have had only two terms, while Osun Central has also had three. This disparity underscores the imperative for a robust and equitable zoning framework that genuinely reflects the diversity and aspirations of all regions within Osun State, ensuring that the principle of fairness is not merely an ideal, but a lived reality.
The Omisore Factor?
The incumbent administration, led by Governor Adeleke, presents a formidable challenge, necessitating a candidate with not just popular appeal but also deep seated experience, robust political structure, and a proven track record of electoral success. In this context, the “Omisore Factor” emerges as a critical element for the Osun APC’s aspirations to reclaim power.
Senator Iyiola Omisore, a name synonymous with political juggernautism in Osun State, embodies the precise blend of experience and structural capacity required to mount a significant challenge. His extensive political résumé speaks volumes: a former Deputy Governor, a distinguished Senator of the Federal Republic, a two-time gubernatorial candidate, and a respected party scribe. This wealth of experience positions him as a candidate who understands the intricate dynamics of state governance and electoral campaigns.
A vivid recall of the 2018 gubernatorial election serves as a potent reminder of Omisore’s crucial role. As the “beautiful bride” in that fiercely contested election, his influence was instrumental in securing victory for then candidate Gboyega Oyetola and the APC, effectively rescuing the party from the brink of defeat. This was not an isolated incident; his strategic importance was further underscored in the 2022 elections. In that cycle, Omisore’s Osun East Senatorial District was the only district that delivered a decisive victory for the APC, with Oyetola winning five local governments within the district. This consistent performance highlights a strong, loyal, and effective political machinery.
Furthermore, a closer examination of Osun East’s electoral credentials reveals an undeniable strength. It stands as the sole senatorial district in Osun State where all National Assembly members, the Senator and all Representatives, belong to the APC. This unified political representation is a testament to the district’s unwavering support for the party. Such credentials prompt a crucial question for the APC: why should another zone that cannot boast of similar, consistent electoral victories and unified party representation be rewarded with the gubernatorial ticket?
Beyond political representation, Osun East also boasts a substantial voter population, a critical component for any successful election campaign. Ife East Local Government Area ranks second statewide in voter strength with 114,404 registered voters, closely followed by Ife Central Local Government Area, which ranks third with 113,232 voters, trailing only Osogbo. The combined strength of these two LGAs within Omisore’s stronghold represents a significant bloc of potential votes.
The culmination of these factors, decades of Senator Omisore’s commanding presence in Osun’s politics, his proven ability to deliver electoral victories, and the significant voter base within his district, provides the crucial boost for an Osun APC victory in 2026. An Omisore candidacy is not merely about an individual; it is projected to guarantee that all ten local governments in Osun East would firmly remain within the APC’s sphere of influence, serving as a powerful springboard for the party’s broader victory across the state. The “Omisore Factor” therefore represents a strategic imperative for the APC’s path to reclaiming the Osun State Government House.
