The prevailing sentiment among partisan politicians is that the North-West geopolitical zone will play a crucial role in determining the results of the upcoming general elections in 2027. This understanding appears to influence political strategies across various platforms. In 2015, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu capitalized on this electoral reality to successfully support retired General Muhammadu Buhari in his bid for the presidency of Nigeria.
In June 2022, the President engaged influential figures in the region to rally their support as he sought the presidential nomination from the All Progressives Congress (APC). This astute maneuver proved effective once more in 2023, when, against significant odds, the APC leader triumphed over four other presidential contenders, including a prominent candidate from the North-West, to secure the presidency.
However, considering the political and governance developments over the past two years, one must question how feasible it will be for the President to achieve a favorable outcome through a strong showing at the polls, particularly given the historical significance of voter turnout in the region.
The North-West region comprises seven states and has a substantial population of Permanent Voter Card (PVC) holders, which indicates where the majority of votes may be found.
Observers of Nigeria’s electoral trends assert that the numerous second-term governors from the North-West, especially those affiliated with the APC, significantly contributed to Asiwaju Tinubu’s success in 2023. Nevertheless, insiders suggest that it was a blend of political acumen and strategic maneuvering that persuaded the outgoing governors, including Mohammadu Abdulkadir Badaru (Jigawa), Nasir el-Rufai (Kaduna), Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje (Kano), Bello Masari (Katsina), Senator Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), and Dr. Bello Matawalle (Zamfara), to support his eventual electoral victory.
It was reported that, aware of the outgoing President Buhari’s ambiguous stance, the former governor of Lagos State held separate meetings with the governors of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kano, and Niger. During these discussions, he encouraged them to support his candidacy as the APC standard-bearer, assuring them that “if I win, we will collaborate.”
Interpreting this assurance as a potential indication of a running mate opportunity, the outgoing governors reportedly intensified their efforts to secure Tinubu’s nomination and ultimately the presidency.
Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, was said to be optimistic about the presidency and a strong proponent of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, hoping to be a potential beneficiary. However, tensions arose when, following his selection at the APC special convention and presidential primary held from June 6-8, 2022, Tinubu chose Senator Kashim Shettima Mustapha from the Northeast as his running mate.
While former President Buhari managed to quell the rising discontent within the ruling party leading up to the 2023 general elections, dissatisfaction persisted among the North-West electorate. Some outgoing governors expressed frustration over Tinubu’s reasoning that it would be inappropriate to select a running mate from the North-West, which had just completed eight years in the presidency.
As internal disputes continued, some outgoing governors experienced regret, lamenting their decision not to support their former colleague and Minister for Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi. Nevertheless, after a meeting with then-President Buhari in Katsina, the governors were urged to unite for the party’s success in the elections and to prevent the return of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In alignment with the adage that suggests those who retreat may live to fight another day, individuals dissatisfied with the events of 2022/2023 have committed to addressing past injustices in the upcoming 2027 elections.
This context sheds light on the recent decision by the APC National Executive Committee (NEC) to allocate the party’s National chairmanship to the Northwest rather than the North Central region.
Some insiders within the party assert that this decision aims to facilitate President Tinubu’s path to a second term in the 2027 elections. Conversely, others argue that this move serves to solidify Ganduje’s position and act as a strategic incentive for securing votes from the Northwest.
Ganduje is regarded as a staunch ally of President Tinubu, leading APC stakeholders in the region to interpret the chairmanship’s allocation to the Northwest as a calculated strategy by the party leadership to diminish opposition to Tinubu’s re-election bid.
They contend that assuring Ganduje of the security of his position would significantly contribute to maintaining unity among Tinubu’s supporters in the region. Some analysts have criticized President Tinubu for excluding former Kaduna State governor el-Rufai from the inner circle of his administration, suggesting that with el-Rufai and the former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) positioned against him, the competition for votes in the Northwest will be intense.
President Tinubu’s appointment of Ganduje to succeed Senator Abdullahi Adamu, who stepped down from the chairmanship following the unsuccessful bid to re-elect Senator Ahmad Lawan, has generated discontent within the North Central region, which feels overlooked in the current political landscape. Since then, there have been muted expressions of dissent against Ganduje.
It is important to highlight that one of the leading figures in the opposition, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, who filed a lawsuit regarding this matter in the Federal High Court in Abuja, chose to suspend his campaign for Ganduje’s removal before the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting.
With the internal discord seemingly resolved, many observers believe that the struggle for dominance in the North-West has commenced, marking a significant confrontation among the APC, NNPP, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and other opposition parties.
