Nigeria has lost its long-standing status as Africa’s top importer of refined petroleum products, according to a new report, following the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery.
Energy consultancy CITAC reveals that South Africa has now surpassed Nigeria as the continent’s leading fuel importer, marking a significant shift in Africa’s downstream oil market.
Dangote’s 650,000-barrel refinery, which commenced large-scale production in early 2024, is already disrupting traditional trade patterns across sub-Saharan Africa and redefining the region’s energy landscape.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s leading crude oil producers, yet it has long stood as a paradox, rich in crude oil reserves but lacking sufficient domestic refining capacity. Its four state-owned refineries, located in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna built between the 1960s and 1980s, deteriorated severely over time due to poor maintenance, corruption, mismanagement, and persistent underinvestment.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Nigeria’s refineries were either running far below capacity or had become completely dormant. Multiple attempts to rehabilitate them were unsuccessful or abandoned midway. Compounding the problem, heavily subsidized fuel prices discouraged private investment in refinery development or operations. In addition, inconsistent government policies failed to provide the stability and incentives necessary to drive growth in the refining sector.
The latest figures released by energy consultancy CITAC revealed that Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025. In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes during the same period, solidifying its position as Africa’s largest fuel importer.
According to Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC, “Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote.”
He added that “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries rose by 77.8 per cent year-on-year in 2024, jumping from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024. The Dangote plant almost entirely drove this leap.”
The report also projected that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will decline to 6.4 million tonnes, less than half of South Africa’s anticipated 15.5 million tonnes. While Nigeria’s imports are on the decline, South Africa’s dependence on foreign fuel is deepening.
“The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650 kb/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily ramping up throughput and streaming secondary units throughout the year. Output from the Dangote refinery has displaced the bulk of international clean products imports in West Africa,” the report explained.
South Africa’s increasing dependence on imported fuels is the result of a significant decline in its domestic refining capacity. Since 2020, a combination of industrial accidents, ageing infrastructure, and chronic underinvestment has led to the closure of several refineries. Over the past five years, the country’s refining capacity has been cut in half, with imports now accounting for more than 60% of fuel demand, according to the state-owned logistics company Transnet SOC Ltd.
In an effort to revive domestic production, the government last year acquired the inactive Sapref refinery from Shell Plc and BP Plc.
The report also noted that South Africa could attract even more fuel traders in the short term as it continues to seek reliable supply sources. Swiss commodities trading firm Gunvor was among the companies recently shortlisted to acquire Shell’s retail stations, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The shift highlights the determination of several African countries, including Uganda and Mozambique, to expand their domestic refining capacity, a challenging goal that has proven even more difficult for Dangote, whose $20 billion refinery project has faced cost overruns and delays.
Traders such as Glencore Plc and Vitol SA have seized the opportunity to supply fuel to South Africa, where several refineries have been shut down since 2020.
Analysts suggest that Nigeria’s declining reliance on fuel imports could bolster the naira, ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and help reduce trade deficits. The development also carries fiscal significance for the government, which has traditionally allocated substantial funds to subsidize imported fuel.
