A policy analyst, Basil Abia, says the projections of the 2025 budget proposition presented by President Bola Tinubu at the National Assembly are unattainable.
In his presentation to a joint session of the National Assembly on Wednesday, President Tinubu said the budget aims to cut down inflation from its current 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent next year.
Abia said it is difficult to reduce inflation to 15 per cent next year when crude oil production is under two million barrels per day.
“The projections are not sensible and the main thing I think Nigerians should understand is what are the assumptions driving those projections. Presently, if you say you want to do 15 per cent headline inflation rate on aggregate for 2025, the core drivers, you have to be able to show us that you are going to sensibly drop down those drivers, reduce their efficacy, and their recurrence.
“Sadly, you can’t do 15 per cent headline inflation rate when you are delivering less than less than two million barrels per day. Now, I know they are projecting two million barrels per day, however it is difficult to do when you are currently producing 1.5 million barrels per day,” Abia explained.
The President additionally said that the conversion rate will improve from around N1,700 per dollar to N1,500.
In any case, the Director General of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Chijioke Ekechukwu, also shared his view, censured the President for giving the impression that he could not bring the exchange rate lower than N1,500.
“If you look at the projections made, first of all, I started getting worried when I saw that the conversion rate was projected at N1,500. That conversion rate is to tell Nigerians that there is nothing we intend to do that will bring the conversion rate lower because Nigerians are as yet believing that most likely that rate can in any case come lower than N1,500, maybe N1,000.
“There is a problem with that projection because you are dampening our hope of a reduction in the exchange rate. All you are telling us is, ‘Yes, the exchange rate is meant to remain here,” Ekechukwu said.
Tinubu outlined highlights of the N49.7 trillion budget to include defense and security – N4.91tn, infrastructure – N4.06tn, health – N2.4tn, and education – N3.5tn, among others.
